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UP election results 2017: Move over exit polls, Artificial Intelligence gives Modi’s BJP 220 seats

An internet data analysis says the BJP could get between 220-222 seats and about 35 per cent vote share in Uttar Pradesh.

An artificial intelligence analysis of internet engagements across parties shows the Bharatiya Janata Party is far ahead in its online push and this could translate into 220-222 seats for the party in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election, the results for which will be announced tomorrow.

Perhaps for the first time in India’s history, the country has a prime minister who responds rather readily to tweets, in fact he once presented a scarf to someone who praised it on Twitter and frequently shares stories of his travels on social media. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s love and belief in the power of technology is all too well known.

The Bharatiya Janata Party was the first party to constitute an Information Technology cell to monitor and target its constituents in the 2009 elections. At the time the party’s efforts to reach out through the internet were dismissed as flights of fancy.

However, the party has since gone on to build an extensive platform to use technology for target messaging and expanding its support base.

Technology clearly has emerged as one of the crucial pillars of the BJP’s electoral strategy. In Uttar Pradesh too, evidently, the party carpet-bombed the internet with PM Modi’s messaging and that could translate into substantially more votes for the BJP, if data analysis is to be believed.


An internet data trend analysis carried out by  MogIA, an Artificial Intelligence system, that used an engagement pool of 1.7 million plus active identities and traced about 16 million conversations (nearly about 18 per cent of the electorate) show that the BJP could actually get between 220-222 seats and about 35 per cent vote share.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s engagement across platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube was substantially higher than Akhilesh Yadav of Samajwadi Party, Rahul Gandhi of the Congress, Mayawati of the Bahujan Samaj Party.

In fact in video messaging, including YouTube, TV Media on the internet, Modi nearly dominated with a staggering 69 per cent, while Gandhi lagged behind at 4 per cent, Akhikesh at 29 per cent.

This trend was reflected across other online engagement platforms as well, such as Twitter and Facebook. Akhilesh Yadav was a distant second, while Rahul Gandhi was trailing Yadav. Mayawati of BSP, however, was fairly muted across internet platforms.

Having said that, extrapolation calculations on the rural electorate shows some advantage to the Maywati-led BSP, and that could reduce the share of the SP-Congress combine.

Another interesting learning from MogIA is rising interest in Priyanka Gandhi, nearly twice the level of interest in Rahul Gandhi.

Sanjiv Rai, inventor of MogIA, predicted the winning of US President Donald Trump in the 2016 US Presidential election when all pollsters predicted a win for Hillary Clinton.

In India, MogIA correctly called a clear win for BJP in Nagpur and a significant gain in Mumbai in the recent Maharashtra Municipal Elections.

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